We can all agree that gun violence is bad, and America does have an incredibly high rate of gun violence. However, the problem is both worse and better than it seems. This article will be an unbiased sampling of the data from well constructed research studies aimed at lowering these overall rates.
First, I want to share a little bit about my personal thoughts on this hot button issue. Gun violence is bad, and as a police officer I have seen the first hand effects that it has on individuals and families.
Secondly, I believe that the vast majority of what we read about gun violence is blatantly wrong. It is often fueled by someone arguing for a right or left wing position. I assure you I have no such leanings.
I am not a Republican nor a Democrat. I am not a member of the NRA. I do believe that the second amendment is important and laws should not be passed infringing on this right.
I am also not crazy. I don’t think people who are mentally ill, felons, or children should have access to guns. Personally I don’t think the we need a lot of change in our gun laws as we currently have quite a lot, and as you will see there is little if any data pointing to increased gun laws stopping actual crime with firearms.
With that out of the way, we can now get into the statistics of gun violence.
US Statistics on Gun Violence
From 1992 – 2013, 462,043 US citizens were killed as a result of gun violence. This is a very high number, but it alone does not tell the full story. To do that we need to examine the stats that compose this number.
Firearm fatalities during 1999 to 2013 compared by intent.
Suicide and Firearm Violence
The majority of firearm deaths are self inflicted. Normally when someone quotes that statistic they move on, effectively writing off 270,085 people’s lives.
I don’t intend to do so. While these deaths are not a result of violent crime, they are none the less a tragedy. Often times firearms are chosen because they are the most effective way to commit suicide, but this has little to do with gun control or passing new legislation. This is a mental health issue.
The only measure I think that would have any success would be an awareness campaign similar to the smoking campaigns of the 90’s. Simply recognizing the signs of suicide ideation could prevent thousands of these deaths, and rivers of heartache.
Suicide is not always easy to recognize, and even spouses and loved ones often do not see the signs until it is too late.
Gun Control Laws and Gun Violence
This is a murky area that has up until recently had little real research. In fact the Dickey Amendment was passed by Congress to specifically keep the Center for Disease Control from studying it. Incredibly asinine.
Recently there has been an uptick in research, fueled by the recent tragic shootings in Las Vegas, Newtown, and elsewhere. We will be discussing an excellent piece of research published my medical doctors that looked at overall gun violence stats from 1999-2013, comparing them to the types of gun legislation that exists in each state to see if laws actual do affect firearms violence.
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They found that states with less restrictive firearms laws did in fact have an increase in overall gun violence, but not in the way you might think.
They did observe that these states had greater female, male, White, unintentional, pediatric, and adult suicide, and overall rates of firearm violence.
Another important finding of the study is that current restrictive firearm legislation does not appear to impact either firearm homicide rates or Black firearm violence rates. There are several potential explanations for these findings. Homicides comprised nearly 40% of all firearm-related fatalities but showed no association with state firearm legislation.
When these two stats are put together and examined we can see that states with easier access to guns tend to have higher rates of gun violence, and suicide, but the homicide rate was unaffected by the passage of firearm laws.
They also found that nearly half of all firearm deaths occurred in the South for an overall annual rate of 12.6 per 100,000 compared to the national average of around 11 firearm deaths per 100,000 people.
These deaths are not evenly distributed. They found that homicide is the number 1 cause of death in Black Americans between the ages of 15 and 34, and of these, 91% are the result of firearms. Firearms violence is devastating the black community.
They found that firearms violence did not change during the three 5 year periods periods examined in the study (10.89±3.99/100,000; 10.71±3.93/100,000; 11.14±3.91/100,000; P=0.87).
Here is a good graphic that demonstrates some overall firearms violence trends. (Source)
We can see from this separate study that the overall trend of firearm violence has been decreasing; however, there are some very concrete populations where firearms violence is an on going issue.
Criminal Victims
Gun violence is dangerous, in 1 of 6 cases of criminal assault inflicting a gunshot wound, the victim dies. These victims themselves are often involved in a criminal lifestyle.
If you reference the chart above you will see that of the 511 total cases, about two thirds are gang related and roughly 15-17% are drug related. The next biggest chunk result from personal disputes 10-13%, with robberies and domestic incidents accounting for the rest.
This data is drawn from the City of Boston from 2010-2014 and is probably fairly representative of major US cities as a whole. Incredibly, these “victims” on average had been arraigned 12 times prior to them being shot. This means they had been formally charged with crimes on 12 separate occasions prior.
Now I don’t mean to suggest that they are not deserving victims. These cases should still be handled just as seriously as any other shooting, but it is telling that these victims had lengthy criminal histories prior to their shooting.
This is a chart depicting the location where they were shot.
Researches in the Boston Study found that caliber size did play a factor. Based on a simulation, replacing the medium- and large-caliber guns with small-caliber guns would have reduced gun homicides by 39.5%.
Here they classify small caliber guns as .22-.25 cal and large as anything above 9mm. So it looks like the fudds on 1911 forums might have been right after all.
The researchers also found that the caliber of the firearm did not affect the number of rounds fired in each instance, and that fatalities were often associated with more hits per victim.
Discussion
Gun violence is a complex problem, and there are no easy solutions to it. If there where then this would no longer be a problem. As responsible citizens and gun owners I think we owe it to ourselves to have an honest discussion about guns.
The data seem to support the notion that when there are more firearms, and easier access, non criminal gun violence like suicides do increase, but criminal violence does not decrease with the passage of further gun control laws.
As a police officer I would have a hard time imagining what more laws we need. In my jurisdiction they are reasonable. My state is a shall issue state and CCW is very common. You may also open carry here, even though I am personally not a fan of that.
I think there are a few things we can do to reduce the amount of suicides, and unintentional deaths, mainly locking up our guns. A recent study by John’s Hopkins found that over half of gun owners do not lock their firearms up.
This is not only stupid but criminal in many jurisdictions. Juveniles should not have unrestricted access to firearms. They should be taught the basics and safe gun handling, but they should be locked up.
Many of you are probably saying that your children know not to touch them, and to that I say this, “do your children always listen to you?” Mine don’t and all it takes one instance of showing their friend dad’s cool new gun for a tragedy to happen.
I have used this gun safe for years, and you can purchase it on Amazon for less than $50. Please secure your firearms.
Criminality and Gun Violence
I think this is going to be a harder problem to solve. Honestly I think it is more socioeconomic than anything else. In many inner city areas, young uneducated men have almost no legitimate job opportunities, and so they turn to criminality. This inevitably leads to gun violence.
I think you are going to have to spend more money on education including things like hiring more African American teachers, which has been shown to positively impact young people of color.
These are hard problems without well defined solutions, but I think we need to start making some progress. We don’t need to solve it with a snap of our fingers, but we can start to make some adjustments at the micro level that can have a nationwide impact with enough support.
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Your use of Boston as an example of cities and violence is definitely not a representative of all cities. In certain areas maybe, but not in many others. I would suggest you look at the FBI Uniform Crime Reports. Their info is much more accurate and representative. As far as it goes too, I live in Oregon, and our state leaders are trying to come up with some really stupid things. Up to this point, our rate of gun ownership is high, as is Washington (also with some new asinine laws), and Idaho. Yet our murder rate is lower than most. Utah at least a couple years ago, was the lowest, with fairly liberal gun laws and a high rate of gun ownership. Some of your info, such as with the mental health problem, is right on. That relating to guns is so-so. Studies based on the FBI Uniform Crime Reports show that over 800,000 people in a year use a gun to defend themselves. The NRA says over 2.5 million and it could be. I’ve done it twice in 6 months, just holding it in my hand, dealing twice with groups of 4 tweakers banging on my door in the middle of the night about 12 years ago, and once last fall at a rest area. And I’m one person. I suggest you use the FBI for your nationwide info. And the CDC, ATF, and DOJ. You were correct about the murders of young black people, they agree with you there. Anyway, research back from the FBI stats into the’90’s forward. As the population rose by over 60,000,000, the rate and number of murders dropped by half. If guns were the problem, the numbers would have risen, not dropped. Please, check the broader picture.
I have. Feel free to check some of the other gun articles on the site!
Great article Jake. It was a fair reading of facts.
My issue with most “gun violence” data is the categories are too broad to come to informed conclusions from which policy can be made (or not made). I would break down categories into the following: Suicides, Murder, Lawful Homocide, Accidents, and Police. Deep dives into victimology of each person would provide the most useful information. Also police having separate catergory is important for transparency and the fact that police are interjected into the situations of the victim’s making.
I think neither major political party wants the gun issue studied in depth. Too much money to be made stoking fears. They fear studies with prove their side wrong or the media will cherry pick data points ignoring the overall picture. They fear angering constituencies or being called racists.
Lastly, our cultural taboo of speaking ill of the dead makes everyone victim of a gun, not a choice. We chose to ignore the fact a man finally succeed after 3 suicide attempts or that son dealing drugs was shot be a rival or the man shot by the police had a record of increasing violent behavior.
Great article, good statistics. Words have meaning and when the term “gun violence” is used many people immediately blame the gun for the violence and fall under the belief that guns must be banned. Also, suicide are horrible but they are not “gun violence”. Ending ones life is violent regardless of method. I believe from the data we have a Cartel led gang and drug problem in America, when that problem is reported on the Six O’clock news you might begin to see a change, until then, nothing changes.
Would you mind listing your sources of data? It would underscore or undermine your claim of neutrality.
Don,
All sources are linked in the article.
Jake,
Thanks for a thoughtful article. “Gun violence” is definitely a hot button issue for all sides, but I think we all know that the issue is more of a “person violence” as it is the individual that perpetrates the violence using their tool of choice.
As a police officer, I bet you know who the violent actors are in your community. They are a small cadre in every community that continue the cycle of violence upon other member of their community day in and day out. What is the answer? I would refer you to the book, “Don’t Shoot” by David M. Kennedy. Kennedy looked at a number of successful programs to stop the shootings in high crime cities. Interestingly, Boston was one of those cities, but due to politics, dropped the program. I think Richmond, VA was one of the success stories. Anyway, it is a good read that dispels some of the myths politicians and talking heads keep spouting.
Alan
Alan you get an award for being able to talk about the subject on the internet without being a troll or an ass lol. I’m somewhat familiar with Dave Kennedy’s work and it is interesting. Not sure if I buy all of it, but I don’t think he’s far off. You are correct a large portion of crime is from a very small subsection of the population, and I think that certain areas of the US distrust the police, but in my experience that’s very regional. I’m thinking that certain areas could benefit from some of his ideas but others it might be less effective.
Jake,
Thanks for the vote of confidence. I always try to add something positive to any conversation or just keep my mouth shut. And if I disagree or find some misrepresentation of facts, I try to present a cogent argument with documentation.
While Kennedy’s work is not the end all, a number of communities that have tried the “tough love” intervention approach has had some positive results. But like any program, beyond the initial proponents, it takes visionaries to continue and avoid the political death traps. Probably some truth to regional consideration as culture may be a relevant consideration. That said, evil is still evil and those who choose to perpetuate evil acts on a fellow human cut across all racial, ethnic, cultural, and some religious lines. I wish people would get past the “tool.” It has always been in the heart of the individual to do evil (causing gratuitous pain, or worse to an innocent) and the tool is only the instrument used. England is a perfect example. Ban guns and they turn to knives. Ban knives and they will use some other instrument.
Suicide is another tragic multifaceted issue. Deteriorating physical health, depression and other more severe mental illnesses, drug abuse, delayed or non-existent medical/psychological care, etc., etc., etc. As a Vietnam vet (corpsman with 3rd Marines), Physician Asst. for over 20 yrs., as many years doing pastoral care in our state correctional institutions, there is not much I have not seen. Still a tough issue to tackle.
Jake, keep up the good work. I really enjoy your thoughtful articles.
Alan
The Dickey Amendment did NOT ban the CDC from doing firearms research. It ONLY prohibited them from doing research specifically targeted at advocating gun control. This was passed because Arthur Kellerman, the researcher in charge of looking at gun violence for the CDC at the time, had produced some incredibly biased junk science for the CDC that was intended to push gun control. Kellerman’s garbage research still poisons the well of firearms info. CDC has simply chosen to treat the Dickey Amendment as a ban on gun research in general.
The full text of the Dickey Amendment:
“None of the funds made available for injury prevention and control at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may be used to advocate or promote gun control.”
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2513131
Good comment. Thanks Heather!