You might save your life with a gun, if you’re fast enough. There are some clear statistics on the average draw speed you need to attain to save your life in an armed confrontation. We will use some excellent data, based upon thousands of robberies, gunfights, and other deadly force encounters to figure out a reasonable self defense standard. By the end of this article you should have a good idea if your average draw speed is good enough. I will also provide some resources to help you improve your skills free of charge. Keep reading for more.
This article is going to be based off of some great data that John Correia at Active Self Protection has compiled over years of reviewing armed encounters. He has an amazing Youtube channel where he reviews self defense videos and discusses the key lessons. Go check out his channel, I promise you’ll learn something.
Recently, John published an Instagram post, where he discussed the average draw speed you would need to defend yourself in different situations. This sounds simple, but after years of training and writing about firearms, I hadn’t seen this type of data anywhere.
I’d heard anecdotal stories about what an average draw speed was, or what was considered a good draw time, but I had never seen any concrete data. Most importantly, John covers what visual cues you can use to initiate your draw in a self defense encounter. Let’s dive into the data.
Gas Station Robbery Self Defense
The original video that John analyzed was the video featured below. It shows a gas station owner defending himself with a pistol that he carries. Apparently he’s fairly well known for carrying a pistol, which makes this one of the more idiotic robberies I’ve seen. Check the video out.
It’s a good thing that that the owner was able to protect himself, but there are several lessons learned. If you recall from my previous article, where I did an analysis of 11 traits that will allow you to successfully win an armed confrontation, you’ll remember that choosing the right time to draw your firearm is critical.
You can see that the owner doesn’t draw his pistol as soon as the bad guy presents the rifle, which is good. He waits until he looks away, and then produces his firearm. He does have a cover garment, so we can probably consider this a concealed draw. Without the jacket it would be a pure open carry draw.
He gets a shot off, and his gun immediately jams, because he didn’t obtain a proper firing grip on the pistol. This is commonly known as limp wristing the pistol. If you don’t have a firm grip, then the kinetic energy of the bullet leaving the barrel is absorbed by your arm. This means there isn’t enough energy for the slide to cycle back into battery, after picking up the next round. It worked well enough here, but that could have been bad.
In cases where there is only a single criminal, they almost always produce their weapon, and then look away to see if anyone else is likely to interfere with their robbery. As John points out, this is a good time for a counter ambush. He states that if the bad guy shows you his ear (while looking away) you can successfully draw your pistol and engage the threat before he can react, provided you have a 1.5 second draw to first shot. Here is a quick list of average draw speeds that you need given different bad guy conditions.
Average Draw Speeds for Different Self Defense Situations
- Bad guy with eyes on you and weapon presented: average draw speed needed (0.6 sec)
- Bad guy moves nose and eyes from you, weapon presented: average draw speed needed (1.0 sec)
- Bad guy shows you his ear, head angled away, weapon presented: average draw speed needed (1.5 sec)
- Bad guy shows you the back of his head, weapon presented: average draw speed needed (2.0 sec)
John clearly points out in the Instagram post that you shouldn’t draw on a drawn gun. This is when a bad guy is looking at you with a gun already out. If you have a 0.6 sec draw, you may be able to shoot him before he reacts, but there are several problems with that theory. We’ll cover that in the next section.
The second scenario is when the bad guy presents the firearm, and orients his body towards you, but averts his eyes, pointing his nose way. He can clearly see you in his peripheral vision, but is probably looking for witnesses, or bystanders that can interfere. Here is the IG post with example photos of bad guy postures.
While a one second draw to first shot is certainly doable from concealment, I don’t think many people have the skill level or muscle memory to do this cold, on demand, every time. If you mess up one portion of your draw, you’re shot!
I think the last two scenarios are probably more reasonable, as a good rule of thumb. If the bad guy has shown you his ear, or better yet, has shown you the back of his head, you have a reasonable chance of drawing and engaging the threat with some margin for error in your average time to draw. Given a normal human reaction time (.25 sec), it’s very unlikely that he will beat you to the first shot.
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Drawing Your Gun Under High Stress
If you’ve never drawn your gun in a high stress situation, I can tell you that it usually goes in one of two ways. The first way is what I call auto pilot. You determine that you need your gun, and suddenly it appears in your hands, without a conscious decision to draw it. This is what you are hoping to achieve with all that dry fire practice, and live fire at the range.
The second way is when things don’t go as planned. You flub the draw, or something is obstructing your draw like clothing that you failed to clear. It’s quite common to grasp the pistol incorrectly as well. Being forced into a slow draw isn’t great, but as long as you practice correctly you can overcome these errors and stay in the fight. This leads me to our next topic, the practical considerations of gunfighting.
Practical Considerations for a Gunfight
If you take your self defense training seriously, then you need to be using a shot timer. You should use it in dry fire, and live fire. You don’t need to use it for every session, but it will definitely expose your weaknesses. That being said, pure speed is not enough to win a gun fight, for several reasons.
In my previous article, where I analyzed criminal behavior during robberies, I determined that a significant portion (73%) of commercial robberies, and muggings have two or more criminals present. You might be able to draw on one bad guy not paying attention, but that’s the best way to get smoked by his partner who is looking at you.
If you’ve read my article where I analyze the stopping power of pistol, rifle, and shotgun calibers, you’ll remember that there were some startling statistics in there. Some of them will have a big impact on this discussion. Check out his chart below.
This data was collect by Greg Ellifritz from Active Response Training. During his years as a police officer he analyzed over 1800 shootings, investigated by his department. He compiled some very valuable data for us to analyze.
This chart depicts the average number of rounds, by caliber, that it took to stop an assailant. Even for long guns like 12 gauge shot guns, and rifles, it took more than one round on average to stop a bad guy. For most commonly carried pistols, you’re looking at least two rounds.
While I don’t think we should limit ourselves to planning on a double tap every time, I think the data do show that that’s fairly accurate. In real life you need to shoot until your threat stops their aggressive action. They might drop their weapon, or flee, or be dead, but you can’t assume that everything’s done after a single or even a double trigger press.
Does a Fast Draw to First Shot Matter in the Real World?
We need to keep in mind that there are more dynamics to a self defense encounter than a quick draw to first shot. Unless you hit the subject in the head, then he will still be alive after the first shot. He will definitely know that you’re shooting at him, and he can respond in kind. It’ll be little consolation if you smoke the draw, get good hits, and then get drilled in your melon when he shoots you back.
All things being equal, I think it’s incredibly important to have a fast draw to first shot. Most shooters can achieve a 1.5 sec average par time, and many can work down to 1.0 second. I’d rather have the speed if I needed it then hope that nothing bad happens. Drawing your pistol is one of many core skills you need to master if you want to carry a firearm responsibly.
I highly encourage you to read this article on criminal video analysis and you’ll see there are some clear take aways if you want to win a gunfight. Here is a condensed list. Check the article out for more info.
- Carry a high capacity weapon, ideally 8 rounds or above.
- Be able to access your gun with one hand.
- Keep your head on a swivel, checking your 6, the most dangerous area.
- Delay your draw.
- Obscure your draw.
- Do not engage immediately unless you must.
- Practice pivoting and engaging threats
- Practice gun grappling and one handed engagement within 3 feet
- Shoot from cover if available
- Practice shooting and moving at man sized target at 3-5 yards
- Validate all live training with force on force training
I do think it’s important to point out a few more key details when it comes to self defense with a gun. While we need to plan that a bad guy may not go down on the first shot, that doesn’t mean that’s how most situations end. Robbers want money, they don’t want to die. A large portion of them will run if another firearm is produced, and especially if they’re shot. John calls the the FIBS (F*ck I’ve been shot) factor.
Sure, they could keep fighting, but that won’t help them accomplish their goal of getting money. However, criminals being the scumbags they are, will often fire back if fired upon. In fact, most statistics show that resisting a robbery increases your odds of being injured.
Remember folks, just because you carry a firearm doesn’t mean you need to use it, even if you’re legally allowed to. This study done by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, highlights some good news. They show that during robberies, where a firearm or weapon was present, it was used much more often to intimidate rather than injure. They state about 1 in 12 robbery victims experienced serious harm.
Final Thoughts
Contemplating using your firearm in self defense is a serious topic. You now have some data to help you decide when you should do so. I’m not giving you legal advice, nor am I telling you what to do if you find yourself in this situation.
In fact, avoiding locations where criminals hang out, and paying attention to your surroundings will do much more for your personal safety than any amount of firearms training will. If you find yourself in this situation, you need to realize that you will only perform to the level of your training. There is nothing wrong with handing over your wallet, and not using a firearm, if you don’t believe your skill level is adequate.
You need to make that decision in that moment in time. I hope you’ve trained for it, so that your lack of preparation isn’t making that decision for you. If you want realistic pistol training standards to aim for then check out the Tier Three Tactical pistol standards. You’ll need to train on a regular basis to achieve the highest level, but the only way you’ll get there is with consistent practice. Now get out there and get to the range!
