Assuming you are reasonably intelligent, and in good physical shape, you have a 31% chance of successfully passing the US Army Special Forces Assessment and Selection Course (SFAS). A recent study, that followed hundreds of prospective Special Forces candidates as they attempted SFAS, has highlighted some key physical and mental traits that are incredibly predictive of success in this grueling pipeline. Keep reading for more details.
US Army Special Forces Training
US Army Special Forces have one of the longest training pipelines in the military. Depending on your specific military specialty within the team, you might have upwards of two years of training before you become operational.
The first step in becoming a Green Beret is successfully completing the Special Forces Assessment and Selection Course. This course is roughly 20 days in length and is mentally and physically challenging. It includes physical team building tasks, cognitive testing, land navigation, and more. Candidates in this course often face ambiguous situations, with no performance criteria, and no feedback on how well they are doing.
Historically less than half of the personnel attending SFAS fail to graduate, and this study indicates that of the 800 plus candidates that attempted the course only 31% successfully completed it. That study also demonstrated what caused the majority of candidates to fail.
The vast majority of people, who fail to graduate from SFAS, failed to meet the standards for the course. These might be PT standards, they might be land nav failures, or any number of other issues. Now that we’ve seen where candidates fail, let’s look at how they succeed.
Predictors of Success at SFAS
As you might expect, in any physically difficult course, being in good shape will strongly increase your chances of graduating. Check out this chart which shows how predictive of completion each trait is.
This chart can be a little hard to read for those who aren’t nerds. The dots to the right of the dotted line indicate the average increase in probability of finishing the course. The list below, shows the physical traits that are most predictive of success.
- Land Navigation Points (75%)
- Road March (67%)
- Run (58%)
- Obstacle Course (50%)
- Pull Ups (48%)
This chart is listed in quartiles. These are not number of reps, or times for example. The percentages listed above are estimates based off of reading the chart. It is quite clear that land navigation and road march ability are by far the most predictive of success. Researchers noted that finishing in the fastest quartile on the second road march increased a person’s chances of graduating by 4.78 times.
Interestingly enough, most categories show a clear trend where faster times or better scores yield a higher chance of graduation. However, for the obstacle course, the third quartile was actually more predictive of success with the fastest obstacle course runners having a lower chance of finishing SFAS.
Demographic Predictors of SFAS Success
It is apparent that your physical performance matters at SFAS, but researchers also noted that folks from certain regions and backgrounds seemed more likely to graduate as well.
- Ranger School Graduate (50%)
- Officer Candidate (47%)
- Grew Up in Mountains (47%)
- Bachelors Degree (44%)
You can see that demographic traits are much less predictive of graduation than the performance metrics above. Graduating from Ranger school was the best predictor, for good reason. If you have already graduated a very challenging small unit infantry school, then you should do well at another course that is broadly similar.
Likewise, officers tended to be more likely to graduate, and so did soldiers with bachelors degrees. Interestingly enough, folks that grew up in the mountains had a noticeable increase in graduation probability as well.
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Intelligence and Physiological Predictors
The researchers also took blood samples to examine what types of bio markers might be associated with increased chance of success. They found that correlations were relatively weak, and nothing was nearly as predictive as performance scores.
They also examined the psychological and intelligence testing that SFAS candidates undergo. As you might imagine, smarter candidates did better. Special Forces candidates are chosen for their ability to problem solve and that requires smarts.
Comparing SFAS to SEAL and Marine Sniper Training
Having written other articles on the physical traits of SEAL trainees and Marine Corps Sniper Candidates, these findings are not particularly surprising. Smart, tough, military members will always do better in rigorous selection programs. However, each pipeline does have some differences based up the specific requirements of the school.
In SEAL training, researchers found that the 3 mile run time and 800m swim times strongly predicted successfully passing Hell Week. For Marines, having come from Recon Battalion most increased their chances of completing Sniper School. This demonstrates that having similar experience matters.
Fitness Programming For SFAS
Occasionally I’m asked for programming advice for candidates attending SOF selection courses both, in the US, and internationally. To be honest that type of program is much different than what you will see here on this website. It’s not harder to write a good program for these guys, but it is a large perspective shift.
It’s clear that SFAS candidates need to ruck and run fast. They need to have a decent level of overall strength as highlighted by the pull ups, and obstacle course. Things like a killer Fran time or deadlifting 500lbs probably won’t help you as much as you might think.
The first step in creating a good program is picking the traits you most need to work on. Next you break down the available time and allocate your training budget towards achieving those goals. Obviously, this is very broad advice, but I’d recommend that you check out my ebook where I talk about the basics of fitness and programming over 125 pages.
Final Thoughts
Having gone through some fairly rigorous training in the Marine Corps and elsewhere, I can offer you some advice that has helped me in some difficult spots.
First, I would tell you that an ounce or preparation will save you a pound of pain. Do not show up to a course like this hoping you will get in shape there. Twenty days is not enough time to do this. Secondly, do not show up barely making the minimum standards.
When you are stressed out and you’ve got a cold, you won’t be performing to your highest level. If your best is barely good enough, then you will fail. You need to show up in the type of shape where your worst day is still better than the minimum requirements. This allows you to feel confident in your abilities, and you can focus on excelling and being a better team mate.
At the end of the day it doesn’t matter if you are the fastest or strongest, you must be able to work as a team. Lone wolves won’t make it. Now get out there and get training!
