If you’re anything like me then you’ve wondered what the US special operations attrition rates actually are. We’ve all seen videos of Green Berets, and Navy SEAL training. It’s only natural to be curious just how many people can successfully complete these grueling training pipelines. In this article I’ll cover some interesting statistics from US Special Operations Command. We’ll review exactly how many people can join the ranks of US special operations forces.
This article is based on an excellent brief that United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) published a few years ago. It shows the exact statistics for how many special operations hopefuls made it through training. The last year this report covers is 2017. As you’ll see, there are several interesting points, in the statistics, about special operators and the special operations community.
In general officers tended to be a little more successful than their enlisted counterparts. Moreover, the services like my own United States Marine Corps, had a lower attrition rate in the Raider pipeline. This is most likely because they only select from current Marines. There is no civilian to Raider pipeline / prep course like other services. Here’s a quick overview of special operations attrition rates.
US Special Operations Attrition Rates Overview
- Ranger Regiment Selection Attrition Rate (RASP 1 and RASP 2) – 65%
- Army Special Forces (SFAS) – 58%
- US Navy SEALs – 73%
- Marine Corps Raiders A&S – 46%
Those of you who are knowledgeable about these training pipelines know that the stats listed in the overview section are only for the initial screening phases in these pipelines. For example, Army Special Forces Assessment and Selection is 24 days. The full pipeline to become a Special Forces solder or Green Beret, can last up to 2 years.
I will break down some of these high attrition rates later on in this article. That way you can see what the odds are of someone starting from the beginning of the training pipeline, and successfully graduating. Without further ado, let’s get into it. Before we do that you should join the email list so you don’t miss any more articles.
US Army Rangers
Like many of the special operations forces on this list, the Army Rangers allow for direct assessment into the 75th Ranger Regiment. That assumes that you’re the right type of person to make it through their grueling selection process.
Of particular note, you should not confuse the 75th Ranger Regiment for Ranger School. Ranger School is a small unit infantry school, open to many different Army occupational specialities. The 75th Ranger Regiment is one of several special operations units that specialize in direct action. They fall under direct control of the Joint Special Operations Command, or JSOC.
To successfully make it through training, into the regiment, you need to complete a grueling training pipeline. For most enlisted soldiers that begins with 22 weeks of Infantry One Station Unit Training (OSUT). Ranger contracts then head to Airborne school, and finally to Ranger Assessment and Selection Program (RASP). RASP 1 is for E5 and below and RASP 2 is for E6 and above, including officers and warrant officers. Check out this success rate chart.
This chart begins with 100 notional candidates with a Ranger Contract. Of these, 8% won’t make it through OSUT. A further 11% won’t make it through Airborne School. For this graphic I’ve averaged the pass rate for RASP 1 with RASP 2 at 46%. This yields 37 soldiers out of 100 hopefuls who successfully make it to one of the three Ranger Battalions. Next we’ll take a look at Army Special Forces.
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US Army Special Forces
The US Army Special Forces, otherwise known as the Green Berets, have one of the longest most rigorous training pipelines in the entire US Military. Like the Rangers, they take civilians off the street and allow them to become Green Berets, as long as they don’t mind months of hard work!
They too start with OSUT for basic training, and proceed to Airborne School. After that they begin a 4 week Special Operations Preparation Course, which is a preparation phase designed to get them ready for Special Forces Assessment and Selection SFAS. If you want to know the exact details that are predictive of finishing SFAS, check out this article on the topic.
Once SFAS is done, the Soldier has to complete the Special Forces Qualification Course otherwise known as the “Q Course.” This is somewhat variable depending on the speciality you’re assigned. Check out the numbers.
This graphic shows that becoming a Green Beret is truly an accomplishment worthy of praise. Of 100 candidates who raise their right hand, only 23 soldiers get to wear the coveted Green Beret. Just like other SOF units, SF officer candidates had a 14% lower chance of washing out in SFAS than their enlisted counterparts.
It’s also interesting to note that the pass rate for SFQC is much higher than I would have thought. It looks like the previous schools do a good job of weeding out unsuitable candidates. Next we’ll talk about the Navy SEALs.
Navy SEALs
The US Navy SEALs are renowned for having some of the most grueling training in the world. After reviewing the numbers, I think they have a credible claim. Like other special operations forces, you can go directly from being a civilian to a SEAL, as long as you pass their assessment called BUDS
The first stop in your active duty training pipeline is Navy Bootcamp. Prospective SEALs then get sent to start their specific training. The report from SOCOM lumps BUDs (including hell week), SEAL qualification training, and Airborne school together. If you want to read specific stats about the physical predictors of success in BUDs then check this article out.
You can see that out of every 100 SEALs candidates, only 24 make it to be assigned to one of the Naval Special Warfare Command SEAL Teams. Interestingly enough, this is almost the exact same number of people that make it through Special Forces training. This goes to show just how hard these two training pipelines really are. Next we’ll talk about Marine Raiders or MARSOC.
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Marine Corps Raiders
The Marine Corps Raiders are the newest group of special operations forces. They were formed around 2006 as the wars in the Middle East saw an increasing need for special operations personnel. Raiders are the only group on this list that don’t take civilians.
You must first join the Marine Corps, and then attend Assessment and Selection, followed by the Raider Individual Training Course. All Raiders have spent at least a few years as a conventional force Marine.
I will still show you the graphic for those starting as a civilian, through boot camp, and then into the Raider pipeline. Check out the stats below.
You can see that the pass rate is somewhat different compared to the other training pipelines. The Marines lose less in the initial stages. Having been a platoon commander for an infantry platoon, I can say that these Marines are tough and in good shape. However, they aren’t all great athletes. There are still plenty of infantry service members that can’t break 24 minutes for a 5k run.
As you might imagine, that level of fitness won’t do for special operations forces. Roughly half of these Marines make it through A&S. A further 28% of the Marines who pass A&S don’t make it to graduation. Out of 100 applicants to the Marine Corps, only 29 make it to a Raider Battalion.
Now that we’ve covered special operations attrition rates, we should cover how to improve your chances. In the next section I’ll review some fitness programs that can help you get in the kind of shape you need to do well in any of these training pipelines.
Fitness Programs for Selection
For those looking to join the military, and the special operations forces, it’s quite common to show up ill prepared for training. I can still remember the year and half I spent whipping myself in shape for Marine Corps OCS, and I can say there were certainly things I could have done better.
The most important thing you can do is build a good general base of fitness. This includes strength, work capacity, and most importantly, aerobic fitness. All too often athletes start working on the exact movements that will appear on the fitness test for the military. This is a good idea, but it should be left towards the end of the training program, closer to when you ship out.
For most training pipelines you need a large aerobic engine, decent overall strength, and anaerobic work capacity in functional movements. Here are some of my best programs to help work on those very attributes.
Fitness Programs for Military Preparation
- 8 Week Hybrid Strength and Endurance Training Program (Strength and Aerobic Capacity)
- 8 Week Functional Bodybuilding Hybrid Program (Mass and Functional Fitness)
- 12 Week Apex Program (All around hybrid performance)
- 8 Week Hybrid Bodybuilding and Endurance Training Plan (Mass and Aerobic Capacity)
It’s important to point out that there are a few exceptions where I think training towards the test makes sense. If you plan on joining a branch that requires a high level of swimming ability, then you need to start sooner, rather than later.
Swimming is a technique sport, and it requires a lot of refinement to move well in the water. You should consider seeking some professional swimming instruction to help in this area. Keep in mind that no military branch allows you to swim freestyle for their test. They require combat side stroke or breast stroke. Let’s wrap this article about special operations attrition rates up.
Final Thoughts
I want you guys to take these special operations attrition rates with a grain of salt. There certainly are a lot of variables that can affect your personal chances of succeeding. Average attrition rates are just that, an average. If you read my article about Marine Corps Scout Sniper training, you’ll remember that having attempted the course, and failing it, was a strong predictor of eventual success.
That is just as true for many of these training courses. Quite often recruits are injured or dropped for any number of reasons, that allow them to return. It’s important to realize that your personal motivation matters when joining these groups. If you’re doing it because it seems cool, then you probably won’t make it.
I remember a lot of those people at Marine Corps Officer Candidates School. They showed up doing the bare minimum on their fitness tests, and they hadn’t made their minds up to do whatever it took to succeed. These training schools will push you to your limits, and you can’t succeed with half measures.
I recommend doing a lot of reading about the branch you’re trying to join. Take an honest assessment of your strengths and weaknesses. Develop a plan to improve your weaknesses, so that you show up physically and mentally ready to go.
You must have excess physical reserves, as you’re much more likely to become injured if you’re always working at your maximum output. Being physically ready can also give you confidence to do well in other areas of training.
If you have any comments or questions about special operations attrition rates put them in the comments section below, and I’ll get you an answer. Now get out there and get training. Don’t forget to join the email list below for more awesome physical fitness articles.
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